Delaware Online
By ERIC RUTH • The News Journal • September 15, 2008

Once upon a time, in that bygone era when housing prices always rose and equity never vanished, the gentle gyrations of mortgage rates seemed like a soothing dance to watch.
Today that dance has turned into a more dangerous — and unpredictable — game, with high stakes for people staring at the prospect of a reset on an adjustable-rate loan.
Experts say financial turmoil and the sputtering economy have created a new kind of market dynamic for mortgage rates, keeping potential home buyers off balance, making investors more cautious, and possibly hindering a swift turnaround in the real estate marketplace.
The most recent shock to the byzantine and hypersensitive world of mortgage markets — the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — sent rates suddenly and substantially down last week. It was just the latest turn in a roller-coaster ride brokers have been enduring for the past year and a half.
Where those rates will head next depends not only on what is to come — a future that still could have much more turmoil in store — but also on all that has happened in these past two chaotic years.
Financial firms worldwide have reported $510 billion in credit-market losses and writedowns since the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market in the U.S. roiled credit markets last year. More of that damage may yet lie undiscovered in the ledgers of banks and securities firms.
“It just came to a head like everything was in perfect alignment, all the pieces were there and it created this shock wave that lasted two years,” said Joe Capaldi Jr., a mortgage broker and owner of Mortgage Plus Corp. in Middletown.
In Delaware, some in the real estate field believe the bottom seems near for plunging prices and slumping sales. It might not take much of a nudge to get things rolling again. Sometimes, it’s just a matter of rates hitting a “magic number” that buyers have waited for.
“We call it the ‘wait rate’” said Mario Glover Jr., director of sales and marketing and Christiana branch manager for Synergy Direct Mortgage. “They were waiting on the rate.”
Most real estate experts think dropping rates — now below 6 percent — may well get buyers off the fence and start to eat into a big backlog of unsold houses.
But it’s a hope that comes with caution, because now more than ever, mortgage rates move at the whim of many forces, all of them trying to tread carefully through a time of higher jobless rates, ongoing foreclosures and sagging confidence.
Once predictably linked to U.S. Treasury notes, mortgage rates have become decoupled by the subprime debacle, and are feeling the influence of everything from gas prices to the presidential election. The old “boilerplate” formula for staying ahead of mortgage rates hasn’t worked, insiders say.
“We’ve had such a dynamic thrust of crests and valleys this year alone,” Glover said.
On one single day in February, he said, the office experienced what he dubbed a “four-hour refi boom,” where quick-acting homeowners could refinance a 30-year fixed mortgage at just 4.8 percent.
“That was something we didn’t predict happening. But it didn’t stay,” Glover said. “Has it been more difficult to guess the rate? Absolutely.”
“There are no indicators anymore, where before you could kind of set your watch by,” Capaldi said. “Now, you might as well flip a coin.”
There was a time when interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would inevitably be echoed in the mortgage market, but repeated rate cuts over recent months have failed to spur that movement. Still, it could be possible that rates would be even higher now if the Fed hadn’t acted, said mortgage banker Rob Grant, senior vice president at Gateway Funding in Centreville.
It’s also clear that rates would be even lower if the market hadn’t taken the subprime hit, he said.
“We should probably be, in a normal world, 5 1/4, 5 1/2,” he said.
For buyers, of course, lower is always better, but for the market-makers, it’s far more complex.
The driving engine of mortgage rates remains capital.
Without cash-holding investors who see a safe bet in buying well-vetted mortgages, the mortgage markets have no new money to lend. Fannie and Freddie provide a huge piece of that “secondary” market.
Without a lot of money to lend, banks are looking far more closely at potential borrowers’ financial health, making mortgages tougher to come by.
That’s why the Fannie/Freddie buyout did so much to help rates last week. With the security of government support again behind them, Fannie and Freddie’s mortgage-backed securities look far more attractive to investors. And that pours more money into the system for new lending.
Luckily for home buyers, mortgage securities that are considered “safe bets” end up lowering interest rates — less risk justifies less return for investors.
If demand for those mortgage-rate securities continues to increase, rates should continue to fall. Insiders are already predicting more cuts, possibly up to a full point.
“The faster and more energetically [Fannie and Freddie] are in the game, the faster the anticipated bottom of the housing market can be reached,” said Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders. “The more they squeeze, the more pain is felt through the entire industry.”
That “squeeze” consists of tighter lending requirements the two giants put in place earlier this year, trying to repair some of the damage done by the defaults and foreclosures that followed the subprime collapse.
In the heyday of subprime, “there was the anecdote, ‘If you have a pulse, you could get a mortgage,’ ” said Bob Weir, executive vice president of the New Castle County Board of Realtors. “Yes, it’s gotten tighter, absolutely. Subprime mortgages are no more. They’ve gone away.”
Fannie and Freddie, for example, have hiked fees for borrowers without sterling credit, while asking for bigger down payments. Home purchasers must put down at least 15 percent of the purchase price, up from 10 percent. And if the owner of a rental home wants to refinance it and cash out some equity, the mortgage can now be for no more than 75 percent of the home’s value, instead of 90 percent during the housing boom.
“No lender wants to make a 90 percent loan today, because we haven’t hit the bottom yet on prices. If they keep going down, it could be a 100 percent loan next month,” said Jeff Lazerson, president of Mortgage Grader, a Web-based loan shopping service.
The money is still out there, lenders say, but credit scores have regained critical importance.
“Back in the day — and by ‘back in the day,’ I mean a year and a half ago — you could get a premium interest rate with a 630 FICA score just like a guy with a 720 FICA score,” Glover said. Now, only the 720 customer has a chance.
“What was good credit a year ago is just decent credit today,” he said.
Tighter lending standards are wise, but can hamstring a market that’s trying to regain its footing, experts said.
“Their underwriting is so tight now, it’s going to stifle any demand that would normally be in the marketplace,” said Guy Cecala, publisher of Bethesda, Md.-based trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance.
On the other hand, at least in Delaware, there is obviously still pent-up demand in the markets, insiders say. Last weekend’s cut in rates brought a resurgence of sorts for Realtors and mortgage lenders, as fence-sitting buyers decided to take the leap.
“I think we’ve seen the worst of it, in my opinion,” Capaldi said. “It’s not going to be the absolute free-for-all that it was a couple of years ago, but people are going to be in a better position.”
Even as some areas of the country watch as millions of dollars in housing equity vanishes, Delaware has emerged bruised, but closer to feeling strong again, those in the business say.
On the down side, foreclosures and delinquencies in Delaware are growing — the state saw its percentage of loans 30 days past due hit 4 percent in August, nearly a full point above the United States average and the ninth-highest rate in the country.
Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that 6.2 percent of Delaware’s 174,486 mortgages are past due to some extent, putting the state in the top 20 for delinquencies.
Sales volume also remains off the peak. New Castle County is on track to sell more than 5,000 homes this year, compared with 6,900 last year, Weir said.
But compared with some regions, home prices are holding on. The average New Castle County sale last year was $264,700 — so far this year, it’s $264,530.
“So we’re basically flat in our sales prices,” Weir said.
Prospects may be brightening, but any optimism is muted by the experiences of the last 18 months.
“I’ve spent a lot of time reading, watching CNBC, talking to everybody in the industry,” Grant said. “Everybody’s cautiously optimistic that this is a good thing, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty.”
And insiders realize that no matter how far mortgage rates fall, there will always be people waiting for them to fall just a hair more.
“Some people like to gamble,” Glover said. “There’s Vegas for a reason.”
This story contains information from the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News. Contact Eric Ruth at 324-2428 or eruth@delawareonline.com.